Predicting Stock Prices of Oil-Producing Firms in Rivers State Using Time Series Analysis

The aim of this study is to forecast stock prices of oil producing firms in Rivers State and to determine the major predictors that influence their price movements over time. Stock prices served as the dependent variable, while crude oil price, exchange rate, interest rate, inflation rate, and selected firm specific indicators such as earnings per share, revenue, dividend per share, net profit, and trading volume were used as predictors. Monthly secondary data covering January 2015 to December 2024 were analyzed using E Views, employing ARIMA and Vector Auto-regression techniques after confirming stationarity of the series with Augmented Dickey Fuller tests. The findings showed that oil price and firm performance indicators had a positive and significant impact on stock prices, while exchange rate depreciation and rising interest rates exerted a negative influence. The VAR model produced more accurate forecasts than the ARIMA model, indicating that stock price behavior in the sector is strongly driven by interactions among macroeconomic and firm specific variables. These results provide useful guidance to investors in selecting favorable equities, help firm managers understand the financial factors that support price stability, and support policymakers in creating an economic environment that promotes investment confidence in the Rivers State oil and gas sector.